Table of Contents
Introduction
In my previous article, I meticulously laid out the numerous reasons why Kamala Harris was not the optimal choice for the Democratic nomination. I highlighted her weaknesses, from her controversial record as California’s Attorney General to her lackluster performance during the 2020 presidential primaries. Despite my strong arguments against her candidacy, the political landscape has rapidly evolved. A few days after the article was published, President Joe Biden made the expected yet graceful decision to withdraw from the race, endorsing Kamala Harris as his successor. This endorsement has dramatically altered the dynamics of the race, effectively consolidating Democratic support around Harris and setting the stage for a historic campaign.
Biden’s endorsement was a pivotal moment, marking a significant shift in the Democratic Party’s strategy. It transformed what many hoped would be an open primary into a de facto coronation of Harris. The immediate aftermath saw an unprecedented wave of endorsements from key figures within the party, creating a unified front that is both impressive and formidable. High-profile endorsements from former President Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and prominent senators like Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders have solidified Harris’s position as the presumptive nominee. The party’s rapid coalescence around Harris has also been reflected in a surge of fundraising, with her campaign reporting record-breaking donations within days of Biden’s announcement.
Despite my initial reservations, it’s clear that the Democratic Party is rallying behind Harris with a sense of urgency and optimism. The palpable excitement among Democratic voters, combined with Harris’s improving public speaking skills and strategic campaign moves, suggests a robust and energized campaign. As we move forward, it’s essential to re-evaluate the political landscape and consider the factors that could lead to Harris’s victory in the upcoming election. This article aims to provide an in-depth analysis of why Kamala Harris is now poised to win the presidency, despite the criticisms and challenges she has faced.
Here is my prediction for the electoral map though I honestly think Georgia and North Carolina are now possibilities as well.
1. Lessons from Hillary Clinton
There is a lot of regret from voters who chose to vote for Jill Stein or not vote at all because they were so sure Hillary Clinton would win anyway. They will not make that mistake again and vote independent or stay at home. Also, Hillary paved the way for women to run. Clinton was a far more impressive and deserving candidate to become the first female president than Kamala Harris but made a few fatal mistakes. Her hubris regarding the blue wall of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania meant she didn’t spend enough time or treasure in those states. She also never fully understood or addressed the anger over the email scandal. But all the mistakes she made were corrected by the Biden campaign teams and will also be in the minds of Harris’s team.
Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign taught the Democratic Party several critical lessons. Clinton’s overconfidence in the “blue wall” states led to insufficient campaigning in crucial swing states, a mistake Harris’s campaign is unlikely to repeat. Additionally, the handling of Clinton’s email scandal left many voters feeling distrustful. Harris’s team is aware of these pitfalls and will likely employ strategies to mitigate similar risks. The 2020 Biden campaign’s success in these areas demonstrates the party’s capacity to adapt and learn from past errors. Harris stands to benefit from this collective experience, leveraging a more robust and nuanced campaign approach. Voters’ regret over Clinton’s loss will likely drive higher voter turnout for Harris, as they aim to avoid repeating past mistakes.
2. Trump’s Age and Decline
Now that Biden is out of the race, Donald Trump is officially the oldest candidate to ever run for president of the United States. He is showing his age. Trump was never the brightest bulb in the chandelier, but now that he is nearly an octogenarian, it is becoming noticeably worse. His speeches are often incoherent. He confuses names and words and seems dazed and confused. None of that mattered when he was facing Biden because Biden was in even worse shape than Trump. But now that Biden is out of the race, there is a magnifying glass on Trump’s age-related mistakes.
Donald Trump’s age-related cognitive decline has become more apparent in recent public appearances. Studies show that age-related cognitive decline can impact memory, attention, and decision-making abilities. While Trump’s base remains loyal, undecided voters and moderates may find his diminished mental acuity concerning. The contrast between Trump’s incoherence and Harris’s relative vigor will be stark, especially in debates and public engagements. This perceived cognitive decline could erode Trump’s appeal, particularly among swing voters who value competence and clear communication in a leader. Harris’s campaign will likely capitalize on this by emphasizing her energy, readiness, and the need for a stable, forward-thinking leadership.
3. JD Vance: A Weak Vice Presidential Pick
For reasons only known to Donald Trump, he picked probably the worst possible person to be his Vice President. Rumors have it that his two sons pushed Vance on their father. There are now many rumors that Trump has buyer’s regret. For one, Vance called Trump America’s Hitler and many other awful things a few years ago. It is also very clear that Vance is just a paid puppet for Peter Thiel, the eccentric tech billionaire who plucked Vance out of obscurity during law school and has been directing his life ever since.
JD Vance’s past criticisms of Trump present a significant liability. Vance’s perceived lack of authenticity and independence, largely due to his close ties to Peter Thiel, further complicates his image. This dissonance within the ticket could alienate core Republican voters and diminish the campaign’s coherence. Vance’s association with Thiel, an influential but controversial figure, may also draw scrutiny and skepticism from both the media and the electorate, undermining the ticket’s credibility. Additionally, Vance’s political inexperience and poor public speaking compared to seasoned Democratic vice presidential contenders will likely be a stark contrast, further highlighting the weaknesses in Trump’s choice.
4. Trump’s Tendency to Self-Sabotage
As I write this article, it is July 24, which means the election is a few months off. That is a lot of time for Trump to say or do many idiotic things between now and then that will likely shave a few million votes from the swing states toward Harris.
Trump’s propensity for making inflammatory and controversial statements is well-documented. His erratic behavior, coupled with an unfiltered approach to communication, has repeatedly resulted in political missteps. These incidents can significantly impact public perception and voter sentiment. Historical data shows that undecided voters in swing states are particularly sensitive to such behaviors. As the election approaches, any major gaffes or scandals could sway critical votes away from Trump and toward Harris, solidifying her path to victory. Harris’s campaign will likely highlight these missteps, emphasizing the need for stable and rational leadership in contrast to Trump’s unpredictability.
5. Harris’s Strong Vice Presidential Pick
Unless Harris makes an astronomically stupid mistake, she will likely pick someone who will greatly benefit her campaign. Whether it is Shapiro, Kelly, Cooper, or someone else, they are all good choices and will make Vance look like a fool in a debate. This will add excitement and confidence in the ticket for skeptics like me who are not huge fans of Harris.
Kamala Harris’s choice of running mate will be a strategic decision aimed at bolstering her campaign’s appeal. Potential picks like Josh Shapiro, Mark Kelly, and Roy Cooper bring diverse strengths to the table. Shapiro’s experience and success in Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state, enhance the ticket’s electability. Kelly’s military background and moderate stance appeal to independents and moderates, while Cooper’s governance in North Carolina provides a strong southern strategy. These choices not only contrast favorably with JD Vance but also inspire confidence and enthusiasm among skeptical voters, enhancing the ticket’s overall appeal. A well-chosen VP candidate will also bring additional campaign resources and support, amplifying Harris’s message and policy proposals across the nation.
6. Harris’s Improved Public Speaking
In my last article, I pointed out that Harris had a bad habit of uttering word salads of meaningless dribble and was a terrible public speaker. It seems she has gotten a lot better in the recent speeches I have seen.
Kamala Harris has shown noticeable improvement in her public speaking abilities. Recent speeches demonstrate a more polished and confident delivery, likely the result of extensive coaching and preparation. Public perception of a candidate’s communication skills is crucial; effective public speaking can inspire and mobilize the electorate. Harris’s enhanced oratory skills position her as a more compelling and persuasive candidate, capable of effectively conveying her vision and policies. This improvement mitigates a previous weakness and strengthens her overall candidacy. By honing her public speaking skills, Harris can better connect with voters on a personal level, addressing their concerns and aspirations directly and persuasively.
7. Harris’s Law and Order Record: From Negative to Positive
Harris’s law and order record was a negative in 2020 but is now a positive. People are tired of seeing stores looted, and there is a decidedly right swing in favor of law and order.
The public’s sentiment towards law and order has shifted significantly. Rising crime rates and social unrest have heightened the electorate’s desire for stability and safety. Harris’s record as a tough-on-crime prosecutor, once seen as a liability, is now perceived as a strength. Her experience and policies align with the current public demand for effective law enforcement and crime prevention. This shift in public opinion enhances her appeal to voters concerned about safety and security, positioning her favorably against Trump’s rhetoric. Harris’s balanced approach to law enforcement, combining firmness with fairness, resonates with voters seeking a pragmatic and effective leader who can ensure public safety without compromising justice.
8. Unified Democratic Support
The Democratic Party’s unified support for Harris following Biden’s endorsement has created a strong and cohesive front. This unity is critical in rallying the base and ensuring high voter turnout. Historical trends show that party disunity can significantly undermine electoral success. By consolidating support behind Harris, the Democratic Party increases its chances of maintaining and expanding its voter base, crucial for winning key battleground states.
The immediate aftermath of Biden’s endorsement saw an unprecedented wave of endorsements from key figures within the party, creating a unified front that is both impressive and formidable. High-profile endorsements from former President Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and prominent senators like Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders have solidified Harris’s position as the presumptive nominee. The party’s rapid coalescence around Harris has also been reflected in a surge of fundraising, with her campaign reporting record-breaking donations within days of Biden’s announcement. This unity not only boosts morale among the Democratic base but also presents a stark contrast to the divided Republican front, further enhancing Harris’s electoral prospects.
9. Effective Fundraising and Campaign Infrastructure
Harris’s campaign has demonstrated exceptional fundraising capabilities, outpacing expectations in the initial days following Biden’s endorsement. Financial resources are pivotal in modern elections, enabling extensive outreach, advertising, and ground operations. A well-funded campaign can effectively target swing states and mobilize voters. Harris’s financial advantage, combined with an experienced campaign infrastructure, positions her strongly for the upcoming election.
The influx of funds has allowed Harris’s campaign to invest heavily in digital marketing, ground game, and voter outreach initiatives. This financial momentum translates into a more extensive and effective campaign operation, capable of reaching voters through various channels. Historical data suggests that well-funded campaigns have a significant edge in swaying undecided voters and ensuring higher voter turnout. Additionally, a robust campaign infrastructure can respond swiftly to any negative developments or attacks, maintaining a steady and positive campaign narrative.
10. Voter Fatigue with Trump
After years of controversy and division, a significant portion of the electorate is experiencing fatigue with Trump’s style of governance. Polls indicate that many voters are seeking stability and a return to normalcy. Harris, with her promise of a fresh start and focus on progressive policies, appeals to these voters. This desire for change and stability could drive voter turnout in her favor, particularly among independents and moderates disillusioned with the current administration.
Voter fatigue is a well-documented phenomenon, particularly with leaders who are consistently in the spotlight for controversial reasons. Trump’s tumultuous presidency, characterized by frequent scandals and divisive rhetoric, has left many voters exhausted. Harris’s message of unity and progress provides a stark contrast to the chaos associated with Trump, appealing to those who long for a more predictable and stable government. This dynamic is likely to mobilize a broad coalition of voters, including those who may have previously been apathetic or disengaged.
11. Demographic Shifts Favoring Democrats
Demographic changes in the United States are increasingly favoring the Democratic Party. Younger voters, who tend to lean more progressive, are becoming a larger portion of the electorate. Additionally, the growing diversity in the American population, with increases in Hispanic, Asian, and African American voters, also trends Democratic. Harris, as a woman of color, is uniquely positioned to galvanize these demographic groups.
Recent census data shows that the U.S. is becoming more diverse, and these demographic groups are more likely to support Democratic candidates. Harris’s background and policies resonate with these voters, who see her as a representative of their interests and aspirations. This demographic shift, coupled with targeted outreach efforts by the Harris campaign, can significantly boost voter turnout and support in key states, enhancing her chances of winning the presidency.
12. Impact of COVID-19 on Election Dynamics
The COVID-19 pandemic has fundamentally altered the political landscape. The pandemic exposed weaknesses in Trump’s leadership, particularly his handling of the crisis, which has been widely criticized. In contrast, Harris and the Democratic Party have advocated for more robust and science-based responses to the pandemic, resonating with voters who prioritize public health and safety.
The pandemic has heightened voters’ awareness of the importance of competent and empathetic leadership. Harris’s proactive stance on healthcare, economic relief, and vaccination efforts positions her favorably against Trump’s record. Additionally, the lingering economic and social impacts of the pandemic have created a desire for change among many voters, who see Harris as better equipped to navigate the country through recovery. This dynamic is likely to play a critical role in shaping voter preferences and turnout in the upcoming election.
13. Abortion Rights and SCOTUS Decision on Roe v. Wade
The recent Supreme Court decision to repeal Roe v. Wade has mobilized a significant portion of the electorate, particularly women and younger voters, who are outraged by the rollback of reproductive rights. Harris’s strong pro-choice stance and commitment to protecting women’s rights align her with the majority of Americans who support abortion access. This issue is particularly potent in swing states, where suburban women and young voters could tip the balance. The backlash against the SCOTUS decision has energized the Democratic base and increased voter registration and activism, creating a surge of support for candidates who pledge to restore and protect reproductive freedoms. Harris’s advocacy for abortion rights positions her as a champion for women’s health, which could be a decisive factor in winning key demographics and swing states.
14. Climate Change and Environmental Policies
Trump’s administration has faced criticism for its environmental policies and rollback of regulations aimed at combating climate change. In contrast, Harris has a strong record on environmental issues and has advocated for aggressive action to address climate change. This stark difference appeals to younger voters and environmentally conscious independents who view climate change as one of the most critical issues facing the country. Harris’s commitment to sustainable energy, conservation, and climate resilience resonates with voters who are increasingly concerned about the environment. The growing impact of climate-related events, such as wildfires and hurricanes, has heightened public awareness and demand for effective leadership on this issue. Harris’s comprehensive environmental policies could draw significant support from voters prioritizing climate action, further bolstering her campaign.
15. Foreign Policy Concerns: Trump’s Alignment with Putin and NATO’s Future
Trump’s foreign policy, particularly his alignment with Vladimir Putin and ambiguous support for NATO, has raised significant concerns among voters who prioritize national security and global stability. Throughout his presidency, Trump repeatedly expressed admiration for Putin, often at the expense of U.S. allies and traditional diplomatic norms. His reluctance to support Ukraine amidst Russian aggression has been widely criticized, highlighting a troubling stance that contrasts sharply with the bipartisan consensus on the importance of supporting democratic nations against authoritarian regimes.
Voters are increasingly aware of the implications of Trump’s foreign policy approach. His perceived subservience to Putin and erratic behavior on the international stage have not only undermined confidence in America’s leadership but also sparked fears about the future of NATO. Harris, in contrast, advocates for strong alliances and a firm stance against authoritarianism, positioning herself as a candidate who will restore America’s standing in the world and strengthen its commitments to democratic values and international partnerships.
The issue of foreign policy is crucial for voters who understand the importance of a stable and predictable global order. Harris’s experience on the Senate Intelligence and Judiciary Committees, along with her clear support for NATO and Ukraine, contrasts sharply with Trump’s controversial and unpredictable foreign policy decisions. This dynamic is likely to resonate with voters concerned about national security and America’s role on the global stage, further bolstering Harris’s campaign.
Conclusion
In my previous article, I highlighted numerous reasons why Kamala Harris was not the ideal candidate for the Democratic nomination. Yet, the political landscape has shifted dramatically in the wake of President Joe Biden’s graceful withdrawal and endorsement of Harris. This development has unified the Democratic Party around her candidacy, setting the stage for a historic campaign. Despite initial criticisms, the factors favoring Harris’s victory are compelling and multifaceted.
The lessons learned from Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign have armed Harris’s team with the strategies needed to avoid past pitfalls, particularly in crucial swing states. Trump’s age and cognitive decline have become more apparent, making his incoherent speeches and frequent gaffes a liability compared to Harris’s improved public speaking. JD Vance, Trump’s controversial VP pick, brings additional weaknesses to the Republican ticket, while Harris’s potential VP choices could significantly strengthen her campaign.
Trump’s tendency to self-sabotage through inflammatory and erratic statements remains a constant threat to his electoral chances. In contrast, Harris’s law and order record, once a liability, now resonates with voters seeking stability amidst rising crime rates. The unified support from the Democratic Party has resulted in unprecedented fundraising and a robust campaign infrastructure, positioning Harris strongly for the election.
Voter fatigue with Trump’s divisive presidency is palpable, driving a desire for stability and competent governance. Demographic shifts, with younger and more diverse voters leaning Democratic, favor Harris, whose background and policies resonate with these groups. The COVID-19 pandemic has further exposed weaknesses in Trump’s leadership, highlighting the need for empathetic and effective governance, which Harris promises to deliver.
As we move closer to the election, it is clear that Harris’s campaign is built on a foundation of strategic improvements, demographic advantages, and a unified party front. These elements, combined with Trump’s vulnerabilities, create a clear path to victory for Harris. The lessons of the past, coupled with the urgent demands of the present, have positioned Harris not just as a candidate, but as a symbol of progress and stability. The outcome of this election will shape the future of American democracy, making it crucial for voters to consider these factors carefully. Harris’s potential to lead effectively and unite the nation presents a compelling case for her candidacy, offering hope for a brighter and more cohesive future.