CNN, AJC, Landmark Polls offer Different Results in Georgia Races

If we combine the three surveys but give twice the weight to the AJC poll as CNN due to the sample size being twice as large these are the results. Once the Channel 2 poll is released I will update again and base the weight of the poll on the pool sample size. These poll numbers give the AJC twice the value since they have twice the sample size and likely offers a more accurate picture.

EDIT: Channel 2 Poll has been released and it as at the very bottom of this article. I have edited this poll to include all three polls. I weighed AJC and Landmark heavier since they both had larger pools. I counted them twice and CNN once for a total of 5 then divided by 5 to get my average. This pool sample represents 2735 voters. CNN 565 Landmark 1000 AJC 1170. So I gave Landmark a little more weight than warranted and AJC also a little more weight as well since they used a 50/50 M/F ratio instead of a more likely 45/55 split. But this should still be a better measure than any single poll.  Those two factors would both add slightly to Nunn and Carter’s numbers. The one thing we know for sure is this will be a close election as this is a virtual tie well within the margin of error and a runoff is nearly guaranteed without a big shift. 

Combined Poll Data Averaging All Three Polls

– Deal, 46.68 percent;

– Carter, 44.1 percent;

– Libertarian Andrew Hunt, 5.33 percent;

For U.S. Senate:

– Perdue, 45.2 percent;

– Nunn, 45 percent;

– Libertarian Amanda Swafford 5.66 percent

 

 

CNN POLL

The following numbers are from the CNN poll conducted with live callers — a rarity in Georgia this year — that shows the top-ticket Democrats with small leads within the margin of error. This article will be updated later once the AJC and Channel 2 Poll data is released. (UPDATED with AJC Poll data at bottom)

The Senate toplines:

– Democrat Michelle Nunn: 47 percent;

– Republican David Perdue: 44 percent;

– Libertarian Amanda Swafford: 5 percent;

For governor:

– Democrat Jason Carter: 48 percent;

– Republican Gov. Nathan Deal: 46 percent;

– Libertarian Andrew Hunt: 6 percent;

The most interesting tidbit from the CNN analysis:

“The Georgia electorate appears to be the most pro-Obama group of likely voters in the 11 states CNN has surveyed this fall,” [CNN Director Keating]Holland said. “That’s not saying much — Obama’s approval rating among Georgia likely voters is only 44%. But that’s still better than the high-30s he gets in states like Iowa and new Hampshire, not to mention the low 30s in Kansas and Alaska.”

It should be noted that these polls have a 4 point margin of error so it is a statistical tie. There is also a very good chance that there will be a runoff in both races. Federal regulations will require more time to allow overseas absentee voting (especially people in the armed services) which means the Senate runoff race would likely be held in early January.  No such restrictions exist for the Gubernatorial race which means it would likely be held in early December.

If nether candidate can receive 50% plus 1 vote on November the 4th, that means voters would need to cast their ballots two additional times. I am not sure if early voting would have the Governor and Senate races on one ballot. This would certainly make things much easier and I suspect a lot more people will choose to mail in their ballot for the runoff and I hope they make it as easy as possible for people to vote for both races on one ballot in December instead of asking them to slog to the booth two additional times.

I understand the need to still allow voting in January in the Senate race for voters that did not cast their ballot by then, but common sense would dictate that the Senate race is an option on the December Governor ballot as well to make it as simple as possible for voters. But common sense rarely comes into the picture when it comes to politics so we shall see.

No Democrat has won a statewide election in more than a decade in this deep red state. For both Nunn and Carter to be even close is a remarkable feat but also likely speaks as much of the weakness of the two Republican candidates. Deal as an incumbent would normally have a very easy time but with the corruption scandals and poor state of the economy in Georgia which leads the nation in unemployment he has become extremely vulnerable. An incumbent Republican Governor in the deep South would normally be easily around 55% in the polls. Deal has largely been MIA his first three years in office and only this last year has tried to make any impact and voters are aware of this.

David Perdue is a political newcomer just like Nunn so neither candidate has a political record to run on. His outsourcing past seems to have hurt his chances and with that brutal fight against Kingston in the primaries many of his supporters might still hold a grudge. He has also largely run more against Obama than offering any vision. Voters are keenly aware that Obama only has two years remaining in office, so Perdue will need to offer something other than criticism of Obama if he hopes to gain any traction. Given that Mitch McConnell is widely despised as a corrupt career politician, the prospect of him becoming Senate majority leader are likely not appealing to voters.

Voters are also keenly aware that promises to repeal Obamacare are unrealistic even if Republicans control the House and Senate. They do not have the votes to overturn a veto. But more to the point they wouldn’t dare try and take away health insurance from millions of Americans without a plan in place to replace it and they have no plan at all. It is very easy to criticize but far harder to govern.

Atlanta Journal Poll

The poll, conducted by Abt SRBI of New York of 1,170 Georgians from Oct. 16-23, shows no candidate in Georgia’s top two races approaching 50 percent of likely voters. With Libertarian candidates pulling away a small but significant chunk of voters, runoffs loom for both races. This is the opposite of the CNN poll above and also uses a far larger survey pool of rice as large. However, in both polls no candidate is close to 50% so the likelihood of a runoff remains strong.

For governor:

– Deal, 46 percent;

– Carter, 41 percent;

– Libertarian Andrew Hunt, 5 percent;

For U.S. Senate:

– Perdue, 44 percent;

– Nunn, 42 percent;

– Libertarian Amanda Swafford 6 percent

 

Landmark/ WSB-TV Channel 2 Poll Results

A Landmark Communications/WSB-TV Channel 2 poll of 1,000 interviews conducted from October 20-21 shows a tie between Nunn and Perdue at 47%, with Swafford at 3%.  It also shows a small lead by Gov. Deal of 48-45, his first lead in a Landmark Poll since April. The poll has a margin of error of 2.75%.

The poll uses the same 29% African-American makeup as their previous polling.  Landmark Communications is using a higher female vote at 54% than the AJC’s poll released earlier today.  Mark Rountree stated:

– Deal, 47.7 percent;

– Carter, 45.2 percent;

– Libertarian Andrew Hunt, 4.9 percent;

For U.S. Senate:

– Perdue, 47 percent;

– Nunn, 47 percent;

– Libertarian Amanda Swafford 3 percent

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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